Inside Caucasus

Tsotne Vanishvili
June 05, 2025

IN TODAY’S EDITION

🇬🇪 - Fara	🇦🇿 - Zangezur	🇦🇲 - Pashinyan polls

🌍 Today in a nutshell

🇬🇪 Georgia’s new “Foreign Agents” law just kicked in — and democracy watchers aren’t thrilled. ⚖️
🇦🇲 Armenia’s Prime Minister is gearing up for local elections next month, trying to keep a shaky coalition together. 🤝🗳️
✈️ Flights between China and Tbilisi are now daily — because nothing says “soft power” like boosting tourism and trade routes. 🌏

🌊 Caspian Sea: Shrinking Into Crisis

The Caspian Sea is disappearing. Scientists predict it could shrink by 25% by the end of the century if current trends continue. That’s not just bad news for sturgeon and oil platforms—it threatens entire ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions across Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Russia. The drying sea adds pressure to regional tensions. For Azerbaijan especially, this affects energy exports, fishing, and environmental stability. The shrinking coastline could also redraw maritime borders—yes, more arguments incoming.

Comment: When the Aral Sea vanished, it sparked health crises, mass displacement, and geopolitical finger-pointing across Central Asia. Now the Caspian may follow—and this time, it’s bigger, messier, and involves states far less cooperative. In a region where hydrocarbon diplomacy already drives tension, the receding tide could pull old rivalries back into view.

🇬🇪 Georgia: Opposition Crackdown Deepens

Georgian authorities have detained two prominent opposition leaders, Nika Melia and Zurab Japaridze, amid ongoing pro-EU protests. Melia, leader of the Coalition for Change, was placed in pre-trial detention after a courtroom incident, while Japaridze was arrested for refusing to testify before a parliamentary commission. These actions have intensified concerns over the ruling Georgian Dream party's authoritarian shift and its decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028.

Comment: The ruling party is betting that silencing dissent will calm unrest. But suppressing opposition may backfire as public frustration mounts and Georgia’s democratic image erodes further.

🇦🇲🇦🇿 Armenia-Azerbaijan: Peace Deal Stalls

Armenia and Azerbaijan finalized the text of a peace treaty in March, aiming to end decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, signing remains uncertain as Azerbaijan demands Armenia amend its constitution to remove territorial claims. While Armenia has agreed to a referendum on constitutional changes, no date has been set, leaving the peace process in limbo.

Comment: A deal on paper means little without political will. As elections loom and emotions run high, the longer the delay, the harder real reconciliation becomes.

🇹🇷 Turkey: Advocating for the Zangezur Corridor

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pressuring Iran to support the proposed Zangezur Corridor, a land route through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey. Erdoğan envisions the corridor as a means to integrate the Turkic world and enhance regional trade. However, the plan faces resistance from Armenia and skepticism from Iran.

Comment: Erdoğan’s pan-Turkic ambitions are clashing with regional anxieties. Armenia sees the corridor as a sovereignty threat, while Iran fears isolation in the South Caucasus.

🇮🇷 Iran: Joint Military Drills with Azerbaijan

In a rare display of cooperation, Iran and Azerbaijan conducted joint military exercises, dubbed "Araz-2025," in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The drills aimed to bolster border security and enhance military preparedness, signaling a potential shift in regional alliances.

Comment: This unexpected military cooperation hints at a thaw between former rivals. But don’t mistake drills for durable diplomacy—the underlying mistrust remains.

Thread to Watch

⚽ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Makes History

PARIS Georgian football star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has etched his name in European football history. The 24-year-old winger played a pivotal role in Paris Saint-Germain's first-ever UEFA Champions League triumph, scoring in a commanding 5-0 win over Inter Milan in the final.

🚢 Egypt Reopens Suez Canal After Cyber Attack

The Suez Canal resumed operations after a cyberattack briefly halted shipping over the weekend. Egypt’s government blamed a state-sponsored actor, possibly targeting oil flows.
🎙️ Take: As shipping chokepoints become digital battlegrounds, the Caucasus’ own transit ambitions (think: Middle Corridor) look both riskier and more important.

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